{"id":3021,"date":"2026-04-14T20:48:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T20:48:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/?p=3021"},"modified":"2026-04-15T18:13:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T18:13:14","slug":"la-chine-travaille-trois-ans-de-plus-et-le-monde-va-suivre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/la-chine-travaille-trois-ans-de-plus-et-le-monde-va-suivre\/","title":{"rendered":"La Chine travaille trois ans de plus. Et le monde va suivre."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

La Chine travaille trois ans de plus. Et le monde va suivre. <\/h1>\n\n

Le fait <\/h2>\n\n

Depuis le 1er janvier 2025, la Chine a relev\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois en 70 ans l’\u00e2ge l\u00e9gal de d\u00e9part \u00e0 la retraite. Les hommes passeront progressivement de 60 \u00e0 63 ans, les femmes cadres de 55 \u00e0 58 ans, les femmes ouvri\u00e8res de 50 \u00e0 55 ans. La transition s’\u00e9talera sur 15 ans. En toile de fond : 297 millions de Chinois ont aujourd’hui plus de 60 ans, soit 21 % de la population totale. Sans r\u00e9forme, la caisse de pension nationale \u00e9tait projet\u00e9e \u00e0 sec avant 2035. <\/p>\n\n

\"Réforme<\/figure>\n\n

Source : Assembl\u00e9e nationale populaire de Chine, sept. 2024 <\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n

Pourquoi \u00e7a m\u00e9rite votre attention <\/h2>\n\n

Les syst\u00e8mes de retraite par r\u00e9partition reposent sur un \u00e9quilibre arithm\u00e9tique simple : les cotisations des actifs d’aujourd’hui financent les pensions des retrait\u00e9s d’aujourd’hui. Cet \u00e9quilibre tient tant que le ratio actifs\/retrait\u00e9s reste stable. Or ce ratio s’effondre partout. En 1960, il y avait 7,2 actifs pour un retrait\u00e9 dans le monde. Aujourd’hui : 4,0. En 2050, les projections de l’ONU le situent \u00e0 2,8, et sous 2,0 dans les \u00e9conomies les plus avanc\u00e9es. <\/p>\n\n

La Chine illustre un cas extr\u00eame : son vieillissement est acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 par les s\u00e9quelles d\u00e9mographiques de la politique de l’enfant unique appliqu\u00e9e de 1980 \u00e0 2016. Le taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 y est tomb\u00e9 \u00e0 environ 1,0, bien sous le seuil de remplacement de 2,1. C’est l’\u00e9quation la plus d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibr\u00e9e au monde pour un pays de cette taille. <\/p>\n\n

\n

Toute r\u00e9forme des retraites dans le monde tire sur les m\u00eames trois leviers : l’\u00e2ge de d\u00e9part, le niveau des pensions, le taux de cotisation. Il n’en existe pas d’autre. La question n’est jamais si ces ajustements auront lieu, mais qui les absorbe et quand. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n

La r\u00e9forme n’est pas populaire. Elle a suscit\u00e9 une vague de critiques autour de l’\u00e9quit\u00e9 interg\u00e9n\u00e9rationnelle et du sort des travailleurs manuels \u00e2g\u00e9s, difficiles \u00e0 employer apr\u00e8s 55 ans dans un march\u00e9 du travail qui \u00e9carte souvent les actifs d\u00e8s 35 ans dans les grandes entreprises. Ce paradoxe n’est pas propre \u00e0 la Chine : le Japon et plusieurs pays d’Europe du Sud se heurtent \u00e0 la m\u00eame tension entre \u00e2ge l\u00e9gal relev\u00e9 et employabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9elle des seniors. <\/p>\n\n

\u00c0 partir de 2030, P\u00e9kin augmentera aussi la dur\u00e9e minimale de cotisation requise pour toucher une retraite compl\u00e8te : de 15 \u00e0 20 ans d’ici 2040. \u00c2ge et dur\u00e9e ajust\u00e9s simultan\u00e9ment pour combler le m\u00eame d\u00e9ficit structurel. <\/p>\n\n

Pour aller plus loin<\/h2>\n\n

Ce qui se passe\u00a0<\/span>en<\/span>\u00a0Chine\u00a0<\/span>s’explique<\/span>\u00a0par deux\u00a0<\/span>logiques<\/span>\u00a0de\u00a0<\/span>financement<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>oppos\u00e9es<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>r\u00e9partition<\/span>\u00a0et\u00a0<\/span>capitalisation<\/span>, et par la fa\u00e7on\u00a0<\/span>dont<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>chaque<\/span>\u00a0pays du monde\u00a0<\/span>tente<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>d’arbitrer<\/span>\u00a0entre les deux face au\u00a0<\/span>vieillissement<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>C’est<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>l’objet<\/span>\u00a0du\u00a0<\/span>Fondamental<\/span>\u00a0:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/span>Les\u00a0<\/span>Retraites<\/span>\u00a0:\u00a0<\/span>D\u00e9mographie<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>financement<\/span>\u00a0et\u00a0<\/span>r\u00e9formes<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/strong>. Les trois leviers de toute\u00a0<\/span>r\u00e9forme<\/span>, les deux\u00a0<\/span>mod\u00e8les<\/span>\u00a0de\u00a0<\/span>financement<\/span>\u00a0et les\u00a0<\/span>r\u00e9ponses<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>concr\u00e8tes<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>adopt\u00e9es<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>en<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Su\u00e8de<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>en<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Australie<\/span>, au Chili, au\u00a0<\/span>Japon<\/span>\u00a0et\u00a0<\/span>ailleurs<\/span>, pour\u00a0<\/span>d\u00e9coder<\/span>\u00a0par vous-<\/span>m\u00eame<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>chaque<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>prochaine<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>annonce<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>gouvernementale<\/span>.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n

\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500<\/p>\n\n

Article r\u00e9dig\u00e9 par The Foundations \u2013 Les bases pour comprendre l\u2019actualit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

www.thefoundations.co<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tLa Chine travaille trois ans de plus. Et le monde va suivre.<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\tLe 1er janvier 2025, la Chine a relev\u00e9 l’\u00e2ge l\u00e9gal de la retraite pour la…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tLes Retraites : D\u00e9mographie, financement et r\u00e9formes<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\tEn 1970, chaque retrait\u00e9 \u00e9tait financ\u00e9 par plus de cinq actifs. Ce ratio s’est effondr\u00e9…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tLe financement des entreprises : du love money \u00e0 l’IPO<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\tToute entreprise cot\u00e9e en bourse a commenc\u00e9 par un virement entre proches ou une carte…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tLa valorisation d’entreprise : m\u00e9thodes, pratiques et cas des startups<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\tDCF, multiples de march\u00e9, actif net, m\u00e9thode Berkus, VC Method \u2014 la valorisation d’entreprise n’est…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tLa Transition \u00c9nerg\u00e9tique<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\tLes \u00e9nergies renouvelables sont d\u00e9sormais la source d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 nouvelle la moins ch\u00e8re dans la plupart…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tLe changement climatique : science et projections<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\tLa science est tranch\u00e9e. Les projections, en revanche, ne le sont pas \u2014 elles couvrent…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le 1er janvier 2025, la Chine a relev\u00e9 l’\u00e2ge l\u00e9gal de la retraite pour la premi\u00e8re fois en 70 ans. Elle ne sera pas le dernier pays \u00e0 le faire \u2014 et le m\u00e9canisme qui motive cette d\u00e9cision est le m\u00eame qui transforme les syst\u00e8mes de retraite sur tous les continents.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3020,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"disabled","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[45,47,50,58],"class_list":["post-3021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitique-societe","tag-breves","tag-chine","tag-demographie","tag-marche-du-travail"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/china-retirement.png","uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/china-retirement.png",1456,816,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/china-retirement-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/china-retirement-300x168.png",300,168,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/china-retirement-768x430.png",768,430,true],"large":["https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/china-retirement-1024x574.png",1024,574,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/china-retirement.png",1456,816,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/china-retirement.png",1456,816,false]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Arnaud Cazan","author_link":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/author\/arnaud-cazan\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"Le 1er janvier 2025, la Chine a relev\u00e9 l'\u00e2ge l\u00e9gal de la retraite pour la premi\u00e8re fois en 70 ans. Elle ne sera pas le dernier pays \u00e0 le faire \u2014 et le m\u00e9canisme qui motive cette d\u00e9cision est le m\u00eame qui transforme les syst\u00e8mes de retraite sur tous les continents.","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3021"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3021\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3079,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3021\/revisions\/3079"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3020"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}