{"id":3725,"date":"2026-06-06T20:32:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-06T20:32:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/?p=3725"},"modified":"2026-06-06T20:32:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-06T20:32:50","slug":"demographie-linde-passe-sous-le-seuil-de-remplacement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/demographie-linde-passe-sous-le-seuil-de-remplacement\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00e9mographie : l\u2019Inde passe sous le seuil de remplacement"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

L’Inde vient de basculer dans le vieillissement. Elle n’avait pas pr\u00e9vu que ce soit si t\u00f4t.<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Le fait<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En 2023, le taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 de l’Inde est tomb\u00e9 \u00e0 1,9 enfant par femme selon les donn\u00e9es officielles du registre d’\u00e9tat civil indien (SRS). C’est la premi\u00e8re fois que ce chiffre passe sous le seuil de remplacement de 2,1. Certains \u00c9tats comme le Tamil Nadu ou le Bengale occidental atteignent des niveaux comparables \u00e0 la Finlande. L’Inde rejoint ainsi les deux tiers des pays du monde d\u00e9j\u00e0 sous ce seuil, y compris des \u00e9conomies \u00e9mergentes comme le Br\u00e9sil, l’Iran ou la Turquie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pourquoi \u00e7a m\u00e9rite votre attention<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La transition d\u00e9mographique suit quatre phases. L’Inde \u00e9tait cens\u00e9e rester longtemps en phase de stabilisation : jeune, en croissance, avec un dividende d\u00e9mographique estim\u00e9 jusqu’aux ann\u00e9es 2040. Ce basculement sous 2,1 signale qu’elle entre en phase de vieillissement plus t\u00f4t que pr\u00e9vu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les effets ne sont pas imm\u00e9diats. Ils se d\u00e9veloppent sur plusieurs d\u00e9cennies, mais ils sont m\u00e9caniques. Une population vieillissante consomme moins, prend moins de risques, innove moins. Le Japon en donne la d\u00e9monstration la plus claire : malgr\u00e9 trente ans de politiques \u00e9conomiques expansionnistes, sa croissance annuelle n’a pas d\u00e9pass\u00e9 1 % en moyenne. La Cor\u00e9e du Sud a consacr\u00e9 l’\u00e9quivalent de 200 milliards de dollars \u00e0 des politiques natalistes entre 2006 et 2023 : son taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 a continu\u00e9 de baisser sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le probl\u00e8me particulier de l’Inde : elle entre dans cette phase sans le filet social que les pays occidentaux avaient mis en place avant de vieillir. Pas de retraite universelle, un PIB par habitant encore tr\u00e8s bas. Elle bascule avant d’avoir les ressources pour absorber la transition. C’est ce d\u00e9calage, entre la vitesse du vieillissement et la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 le financer, qui constitue le d\u00e9fi structurel le plus sous-estim\u00e9 des prochaines d\u00e9cennies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Pour comprendre comment la transition d\u00e9mographique mondiale redistribue les \u00e9quilibres \u00e9conomiques et met sous pression les syst\u00e8mes sociaux, lisez le Fondamental \u00ab Transition d\u00e9mographique : vieillissement et cons\u00e9quences. \u00bb<\/strong><\/p>\n Lire le Fondamental \u2192<\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

Sources et r\u00e9f\u00e9rences<\/h2>\n\n
\n
\n Nations Unies, DESA — World Population Prospects 2024<\/span>\n Officiel<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n population.un.org\/wpp<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Nations Unies, DESA — World Fertility 2024 (mars 2025)<\/span>\n Officiel<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n un.org — World Fertility 2024 (PDF)<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n UNFPA — Donn\u00e9es sur le vieillissement & rapports sur l’\u00e9tat de la population mondiale<\/span>\n Officiel<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n unfpa.org\/ageing<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n OCDE — Pensions at a Glance 2023<\/span>\n Officiel<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n oecd.org — Pensions at a Glance 2023<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Eurostat — Protection sociale : d\u00e9penses en pensions, 2023<\/span>\n Officiel<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n ec.europa.eu — Eurostat pensions<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n FMI — The Fiscal Costs of Aging : An IMF Staff Discussion Note<\/span>\n Officiel<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n imf.org — Fiscal Costs of Aging<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Statistics Korea — Rapport annuel sur la natalit\u00e9 et la f\u00e9condit\u00e9, 2023<\/span>\n Officiel<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n kostat.go.kr — Statistics Korea<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Korea Development Institute — Analyse des d\u00e9penses natalistes, 2024<\/span>\n Donn\u00e9es<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n kdi.re.kr — Korea Development Institute<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Population Reference Bureau — 2024 World Population Data Sheet<\/span>\n Donn\u00e9es<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n prb.org — World Population Data Sheet 2024<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Our World in Data — Esp\u00e9rance de vie & indicateurs d\u00e9mographiques (Roser et al.)<\/span>\n Donn\u00e9es<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n ourworldindata.org — Life expectancy<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Article r\u00e9dig\u00e9 par The Foundations \u2013 Les bases pour comprendre l\u2019actualit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

www.thefoundations.co<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\tD\u00e9mographie : l\u2019Inde passe sous le seuil de remplacement<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\tL’Inde vient de passer en phase de vieillissement d\u00e9mographique, plus t\u00f4t que pr\u00e9vu. Un basculement…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tTransition d\u00e9mographique\u00a0: vieillissement et cons\u00e9quences<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\tLa f\u00e9condit\u00e9 mondiale a \u00e9t\u00e9 divis\u00e9e par deux en soixante ans. Pendant ce temps, la…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tAlphabet l\u00e8ve 80 milliards pour financer l’IA<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\tAlphabet vient de lever 80 milliards pour financer son infrastructure IA. Un chiffre qui dit…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tMigrations internationales : flux, causes et impacts<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\tLes pays qui durcissent le plus leurs politiques migratoires sont souvent ceux qui font face…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tLa Chine fabrique 80 % du solaire mondial. Et perd des milliards.<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\tLa Chine exporte des records de panneaux solaires dans le sillage du conflit dans le…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\tSpaceX entre en bourse \u00e0 1 800 milliards. Son chiffre d’affaires : 18,7 milliards.<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\tLes banques valorisent SpaceX 1 800 milliards de dollars pour une entreprise qui a perdu…\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\tLire la suite<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’Inde vient de passer en phase de vieillissement d\u00e9mographique, plus t\u00f4t que pr\u00e9vu. Un basculement structurel dont les effets, m\u00e9caniques et durables, se d\u00e9velopperont sur plusieurs d\u00e9cennies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[45,50,58],"class_list":["post-3725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitique-societe","tag-breves","tag-demographie","tag-marche-du-travail"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":false,"thumbnail":false,"medium":false,"medium_large":false,"large":false,"1536x1536":false,"2048x2048":false},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Arnaud Cazan","author_link":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/author\/arnaud-cazan\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"L'Inde vient de passer en phase de vieillissement d\u00e9mographique, plus t\u00f4t que pr\u00e9vu. Un basculement structurel dont les effets, m\u00e9caniques et durables, se d\u00e9velopperont sur plusieurs d\u00e9cennies.","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3725"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3735,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3725\/revisions\/3735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thefoundations.co\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}