THE FUNDAMENTAL
Inflation: mechanisms, causes and consequences
Prices rise, savings shrink, central banks react. Here is how the mechanism reaches you, and how to read it.
Since 2021, you’ve lost months of income to a tax that nobody ever voted for.
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THE BRIEFSydney falls, rents soar: Australia’s market splitsJune 30, 2026For the first time in the current cycle, home values are falling in Sydney and Melbourne, even as rents rise 5.9% nationally. Rates back at 4.35%, a tax shake-up for landlords, and a record low in consumer confidence: three forces behind a housing market that’s splitting in two.Read more →
THE FUNDAMENTALPublic debt hit $100T. Why it never stopsMay 26, 2026Every year, thousands of companies merge or get acquired for trillions of dollars combined. Yet studies consistently find that most deals fail to deliver their promised value. This Fundamental breaks down how M&A actually works: why companies pursue deals, what due diligence really uncovers, why synergies are so often overpromised, and what separates the transactions that create lasting value from those that quietly destroy it.Read more →
THE BRIEFUS debt interest now tops the entire defense budgetMay 26, 2026For the first time since the 1990s, US net interest payments on the federal debt exceed the entire national defense budget: $952 billion versus $886 billion. On May 16, 2025, Moody’s stripped the US of its triple-A, the last of the three major rating agencies to do so. A signal markets already knew. A mechanism most people have never seen explained.Read more →
THE BRIEFUS tariffs struck down: global trade awaits a judgeMay 20, 2026In 78 days, two US tariff programs were struck down in court. This is not just a legal dispute: it signals that global value chains are now operating without stable ground rules, and every link in the chain is absorbing the cost.Read more →
THE FUNDAMENTALInternational trade and global value chainsMay 19, 2026Your smartphone was designed in the United States, built with components from Taiwan and South Korea, assembled in China, and shipped across three continents before reaching your hands. That journey is not an exception, it is how the modern economy works. Understanding global value chains, the return of protectionism, and the reshaping of supply chains is now essential for anyone trying to make sense of prices, jobs, and geopolitics.Read more →
THE BRIEFThe Fed’s new chair won by the narrowest vote everMay 17, 202654–45: the narrowest confirmation vote in Federal Reserve history.Read more →
THE BRIEFWhen a president tries to fire the Fed chairApril 20, 2026On April 15, Donald Trump threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn’t leave his post by May 15.Read more →
THE FUNDAMENTALCryptocurrencies and digital assets: the basicsMarch 16, 2026Bitcoin passed $100,000. Entire economies have adopted it as legal tender. Regulators worldwide are still trying to catch up. Before forming an opinion, it helps to understand what blockchain actually does, why crypto behaves the way it does, and what distinguishes a serious asset class from speculation.Read more →