Interest rates
Fed rate hike: markets triple the odds as oil tops $100
In one week, the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on July 29 jumped from 10.7% to 34.7%. Behind the reversal lies a precise chain: oil above $100 a barrel feeds inflation, and inflation commands monetary policy.
Sydney falls, rents soar: Australia’s market splits
For the first time in the current cycle, home values are falling in Sydney and Melbourne, even as rents rise 5.9% nationally. Rates back at 4.35%, a tax shake-up for landlords, and a record low in consumer confidence: three forces behind a housing market that’s splitting in two.
Public debt hit $100T. Why it never stops
Global public debt has passed 100 trillion dollars. Some economists call it a slow-motion crisis. Others say it is perfectly manageable. Both can be right, because debt sustainability depends on factors most people never check. How sovereign borrowing really works, and what makes a debt level dangerous or not.
US debt interest now tops the entire defense budget
For the first time since the 1990s, US net interest payments on the federal debt exceed the entire national defense budget: $952 billion versus $886 billion. On May 16, 2025, Moody’s stripped the US of its triple-A, the last of the three major rating agencies to do so. A signal markets already knew. A mechanism most people have never seen explained.
The Fed’s new chair won by the narrowest vote ever
54–45: the narrowest confirmation vote in Federal Reserve history.
When a president tries to fire the Fed chair
On April 15, Donald Trump threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn’t leave his post by May 15.
Real estate: bubbles, investment and housing policy
Real estate is the world’s largest asset class, and one of the least understood. Price-to-income ratios, cap rates, bubble dynamics, rent control, zoning: the concepts that explain why housing markets behave the way they do, in any country, at any point in the cycle.
Financial markets: how stocks, bonds and prices work
Stocks, bonds, derivatives, indices, market makers, liquidity, financial markets have their own language, their own rules, and their own logic. A structured breakdown of how they’re organized, who the key players are, and what actually moves prices, beyond the headlines.
Economic cycles: recession, expansion and bubbles
Economies don’t grow in straight lines. They expand, overheat, contract, and recover, in patterns that repeat, even if the triggers vary. How to read economic cycles, what the leading indicators actually signal, and why understanding this rhythm changes how you interpret almost any piece of financial news.
Interest rates: how monetary policy moves the economy
When central banks move their key rate by a quarter of a point, mortgage costs shift, currencies fluctuate, and stock markets reprice, sometimes within minutes. Understanding why that happens is the starting point for reading any major economic event of the past two decades.
Inflation: mechanisms, causes and consequences
Prices rise, savings shrink, central banks react. Here is how the mechanism reaches you, and how to read it.