The energy transition: technologies, stakes, timelines

Renewables, nuclear, hydrogen, storage: costs, feasibility and timeline

Introduction

For two centuries, one assumption shaped industrial civilization: fossil fuels are unbeatable. Not for ideological reasons, but out of economic logic, they were simply cheaper than everything else.

That assumption is now wrong.

In 2024, generating one megawatt-hour of solar electricity costs on average $43 according to IRENA. In 2010, the same megawatt-hour cost $460. A drop of 91% in 14 years. No energy technology in history had ever followed such a learning curve.

Why this topic is unavoidable right now, In 2023, global clean energy investment reached $1.8 trillion against $1.05 trillion for fossil fuels, a ratio of nearly 2 to 1. That gap has been widening since 2016 for low-carbon electricity. Understanding the forces driving it means understanding where the world is headed.

And yet the energy transition remains widely misunderstood. Many picture it as a straightforward swap: wind turbines where coal plants used to stand. The reality is a technological, economic and geopolitical puzzle of extraordinary complexity.

This Fundamental gives you the tools to read it clearly, without false simplification.